Google’s mobile Android operating system remains on track to capture at least 45% of the smartphone market by 2016.
According to senior ABI analyst Michael Morgan, Android’s hyper-success shows absolutely no signs of waning anytime soon.
“Android, Bada and BlackBerry [all] have a great opportunity to fill the vacuum being left by the disappearance of the Symbian OS within the next two years,” explained Morgan.
“[Still], we expects that [by] 2016 Android, will [dominate] 45% of the market.”
Morgan also noted that Apple’s iOS – which held 15% of the market in 2010 – would likely experience moderate but steady growth over the mid-term, clocking in at an impressive 19% market share by 2016.
Meanwhile, RIM, which maintained a 16% market share in 2010, is projected to lose some ground, decreasing (gently) to a respectable 14% in 2016.
Nevertheless, ABI VP Kevin Burden emphasized that RIM’s “slight” loss doesn’t mean falling shipments.
“[True], RIM has found its niche, but the consumer market will grow faster than its portion of it.”
And what about Windows Phone 7?
As TG Daily previously reported, IDC recently proposed a rather optimistic scenario for Redmond’s newest mobile OS, predicting the nascent WP7 will claim second place in the fast-paced smartphone race by 2015.
As expected, ABI offered quite a different assessment.
“Windows Phone 7, which shipped in two million handsets in Q4 2010, will have to find incredible success through its Nokia channel to take more than [even] 7% of the market by 2016,” said Morgan.
“On the other hand, with 4 million units shipped in 2010 (amounting to a 1.5% market share), Bada has taken off very well, very fast. [As such], Bada may reach 10% market share by 2016.”