Chicago (IL) - In contrast to the looming 30-year trend of overall diminishing ice growth, the Arctic Ocean is again showing signs of a return to large ice packs. In 2008, first year ice coverage grew significantly. It set a record covering 73% of the entire Arctic basin. Because most of this was first year ice, and therefore thin, it was more prone to melting during the summer months. And while that did happen, the amount of first year ice is still large, possibly indicating the beginning of a trend.
The 2008 season is the second lowest on record in terms of ice extent. The permanent ice pack was larger in surface area, but smaller in terms of overall ice due to its relative thinness. Experts believe that this mild upward tick in the amount of ice seen, one which reverses momentarily the 30-year downward trend, is no uptick at all.
Despite the large amount of first year ice which remains, said NSIDC's Mark Serreze, "When you look at the sharp decline that we’ve seen over the past thirty years, a 'recovery' from lowest to second lowest is no recovery at all . Both within and beyond the Arctic, the implications of the decline are enormous."
The ice has declined an average of 11% to 12% per year over the past 30 years, which many scientists attribute to global warming. Says NSIDC research scientist Julienne Stroeve, "I find it incredible that we came so close to beating the 2007 record — without the especially warm and clear conditions we saw last summer. I hate to think what 2008 might have looked like if weather patterns had set up in a more extreme way."
At the end of the 2008 melting season, much first year ice remains, which means that next year it will be two year ice. And we'll have to wait until the end of next September to see how well the ice survived the global warming of 2009.
The 2008 season is the second lowest on record in terms of ice extent. The permanent ice pack was larger in surface area, but smaller in terms of overall ice due to its relative thinness. Experts believe that this mild upward tick in the amount of ice seen, one which reverses momentarily the 30-year downward trend, is no uptick at all.
Despite the large amount of first year ice which remains, said NSIDC's Mark Serreze, "When you look at the sharp decline that we’ve seen over the past thirty years, a 'recovery' from lowest to second lowest is no recovery at all . Both within and beyond the Arctic, the implications of the decline are enormous."
The ice has declined an average of 11% to 12% per year over the past 30 years, which many scientists attribute to global warming. Says NSIDC research scientist Julienne Stroeve, "I find it incredible that we came so close to beating the 2007 record — without the especially warm and clear conditions we saw last summer. I hate to think what 2008 might have looked like if weather patterns had set up in a more extreme way."
At the end of the 2008 melting season, much first year ice remains, which means that next year it will be two year ice. And we'll have to wait until the end of next September to see how well the ice survived the global warming of 2009.