New York (NY) – You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to figure out why Google goes after the mobile market. With an estimated global installed base of 4 billion mobile phones in 2008 and more than 1.2 billion cellphones sold annually, the platform has a far greater reach than the 800 million desktops and laptops estimated in use today. Greater use of mobile search enables Google to expand its reach and serve more ads. With mobile advertising spending predicted to grow to $19 billion by 2012 from about $1.6 billion today, it's no surprise the search giant wants a big piece of that pie. Android is the platform Google will use to challenge the established players as well as Apple and its iPhone.
From what we have seen today, Android has all the genes to be powerful enough to challenge any platform, including the iPhone, and offers a few important advantages such as multitasking, IM and a system-wide search accessed through a dedicated key. Android also comes with a nice notification center that is revealed when you move your finger down from top of the screen, providing a quick overview of events such as missed phone calls, incoming email, text messages, etc.
Its mapping application combines a built-in compass sensor to deliver Google street view of your current location that moves as you move the handset around. Best of all, Android is free and promotes open access to the platform.
Android Market is the key platform within the platform
But Android Market (AM), not Android, has been the real star of the G1 launch event earlier today. Basically a Google-hosted App Store clone, AM promises to tear down Microsoft’s and Apple's walls by allowing anyone with programming knowledge to develop applications without bending to the rules of one specific company.
Developers register online for free, download the SDK and upload their applications to AM. iPhone developers have to pay a $99 a year fee and wait days, often even weeks until Apple approves their applications. Besides, Apple has been exercising too much control lately. It removed the $999 "I Am Rich" application as well as the violent comic book Murderdrome and an application called NetShare, which turns the handset into a tethered modem. The company crossed a certain comfort level when it killed Podcaster, a software that lets users download podcasts directly to the handset using Wi-Fi - bypassing iTunes.
App Store: I'm out
"Since Podcaster assists in the distribution of podcasts it duplicates the functionality of the Podcast section of iTunes," Apple wrote in the rejection letter to Podcaster creator Alex Sokirynsky. The move angered even the most loyal fans and developers. "Apple has gone too far. Rejecting an application because it might compete with Apple is simply indefensible," said well-known Mac developer Paul Kafasis. Daring Fireball's John Gruber blogged "If this is truly Apple's policy, it's a disaster for the platform." In a post titled "App Store: I'm out" developer Fraser Speirs wrote "I will never write another iPhone application for the App Store as currently constituted."
The lack of a transparent pre-approval process is frustrating for iPhone developers but is it frustrating enough to convince them to switch to AM instead? The installed base of almost 10 million iPhones sparked a gold rush among developers, created substantial wealth overnight. Steve Demeter pocketed $250,000 with his $4.99 game Trism. He now employs 4 people who develop five new iPhone applications, but he doesn't plan to develop for Android. "Do I want to be spending six months to write the game, and another six months making it compatible? If I had Trism available for Android, and there are 50 Android devices and every time one of them crashes (the users) contact me, do I want that?"
It's the software, stupid
Users downloaded over 100 million iPhone applications since the App Store opened for business on July 11. It has more than 3000 applications available already and analysts predict it will grow into a $1.2 billion business by the end of 2009. Can AM top that? Yes, but Android has to ship the first million apps to catch developer attention and 10 million to create a snowball effect. This, however, will not be possible if the hardware and the design are not on par with the software. G1 is clearly not the device that can drive such numbers. However, an array of upcoming Android devices can change the landscape drastically over the next few years. If desktop history is any indication, open-source-based mobile platforms may end up being ignored by mainstream consumers.
This time, however, open-source is backed by Google. Perhaps this is decisive factor that will turn the mobile industry upside down. If you ask us, the time is right.