Analyst Opinion - The current Computex tradeshow means that almost half this year is over. Time to look at what technology trends this year has brought so far and draw some conclusions. There are major changes in spending patterns that may impact not only in the short term, but in the long term as well. Here are my top 5 for 2008 so far.
1. Smartphones over laptops and MP3 Players. We spend an increasing amount of time on our phones and smartphones like the second generation iPhone, Samsung Instinct as well as the upcoming RIM Bold and Thunder are redefining what can be done on a phone. AMD (graphics), Intel (battery life), and VIA (price) are all chasing each other to create the first portable always connected device, with Nvidia possibly being the company that could have the last laugh. It is anyone’s guess (Apple is the safe bet) for which device we will next line up to buy. I think we are at the front end of a trend similar to the one that created the laptop computer in the first place. Much like it was back then; it will take a while for folks to figure out how to get the performance, size, and battery life to where we need it to be. But once they do, we are likely to leave the computer at home and take our phone onto the road instead.
But it is not just the laptop that is being displaced: It is the MP3 player that is replaced by phones that can do everything that the old MP3 player could do plus streaming video. I don’t think it will be long before companies start wondering why they are buying phone systems and instead put cell phone repeaters in office buildings and let people just use their cell phones (many seem to be using cellphones for inbound calls most of the time right now).
2. Visual Networking. We started out with basic networking for moving files (over a long period of time), doing email, and handling transactions. Then we got more bandwidth and larger files, pictures, and even video started becoming available. However, with a huge focus moving to HD video and the increased need for low latency video communications (some of it having to do with saving gas), the next phase is Visual Networking which we spoke of earlier.
Whether it is in our homes or businesses, we are increasingly going to want real time entertainment, communications, and collaboration to work over long distances. In addition, Social Networking sites have seen a massive increase in the use of video content. Visual networking not only requires high download and upload times, but low latency on demand for video conferencing. Services like Verizon’s FIOS offering and Microsoft’s IP TV service are both indicators of this trend which is already being showcased by gigabit and higher home and business networks.
Read on the next page: HD video on demand, affinity social networking, all-in-one computers