Playbook versus iPad: What are the odds?

  • It seems as if the folks at RIM are gearing up for a battle with Steve Jobs and his so-called "magical" iPad.

    Problem is, the war is already over, except for some reason, the people at RIM didn't get the memo.

    Now, before you accuse me of being a rabid Apple fanboi, please remember that I am nothing more than an aging curmudgeon tapping away at a computer keyboard while pining away for my Remington and a more civilized age.

    But I digress.

    In any case, while the iPad is hardly "magical," it has captured the hearts and minds of people all over this mortal coil of ours. 

    Yes, Google is still trying to tempt consumers away from the iPad by bribing them with stale Honeycomb cake, but it just doesn't seem to be working, at least not yet, anyway. 

    Because as far as most Americans are concerned, Android=smartphones and Apple = smartphones+tablets.

    And where is RIM and its underdog BlackBerry Playbook in the above-mentioned equation?

    Well, probably not in a very good place I would say, because the device currently lacks a number of native apps, including an e-mail program, contacts and calendar. 

    Still, RBC Capital Markets analysts expect a "modest start" for the PlayBook - claiming the current problems "will become non-issues with subsequent enhancements and second-gen versions."

    Yes, it's all fine and good listening to overpaid analysts prattling on about an uncertain future. 

But what I want to know is - what are the odds right here, right now?

    Fortunately, Tony Harvey and his crack team of oddsmakers at, have calculated the odds on how many Playbook units will be sold in 2011.

    Shall we take a look?

    1.9 MILLION UNITS OR MORE (2011)
    +380     21.40%
    2.9 MILLION UNITS OR MORE (2011)
    +350     22.20%
    3.9 MILLION UNITS OR MORE (2011)
    +320     24.30%
    4.9 MILLION UNITS OR MORE (2011)
    +200     33.20%
    5.9 MILLION UNITS OR MORE (2011)
    +150     40.00%
    6.9 MILLION UNITS OR MORE (2011)
    +120     45.50%
    Note: The +/- Indicates the return on the wager. The percentage is the likelihood that response will occur.

    So if you were the betting type, where would you put your money?