Wintel paradigm threatened by ARM-based tablets

Posted by Trent Nouveau

Is the wild success of ARM-based tablets such as Apple's iPad slowly killing the traditional Wintel model?

Well, Goldman Sachs analyst Bill Shope believes that both Microsoft and Intel should be significantly concerned over ARM's current dominance of the lucrative mobile sphere.

According to Shope, consumers are projected to snap up a staggering 54.7 million tablet devices in 2011.

"If this is the case and our tablet forecast is anywhere near accurate, this would be the first time in three decades that a non-Wintel technology has made legitimate inroads into personal comput[ing]," Shope said in an industry note quoted by DailyTech and All Things D.

"[Yes], this rush of iPad competitors is not surprising in itself, as Apple tends to regularly define the direction of the electronic media and computing industries.

"[Still], what is surprising is that many of these products are not utilizing Intel microprocessors or a Microsoft operating environment."



Indeed, Shope noted that 19.1 million notebook units will be lost to tablets in 2011, with the number jumping to 26.1 million by 2012.



"[Of course], we recognize that it is difficult to accurately predict the cannibalization rate of such a nascent market. [However], we believe early evidence supports our views.

"In fact, in Goldman Sachs' recent IT spending survey, 51 percent of respondents said they expected some degree of notebook cannibalization from tablets.

"This is an important result because: (1) it's a corporate survey, and tablets will likely have a more significant impact on the consumer market, and (2) netbooks represent an insignificant component of corporate PC purchases."