Why IDC, others think Windows Phone can win

Posted by Mike Luttrell

Another research group is saying Microsoft's Windows Phone platform will eventually overtake the iPhone.

IDC, one of the most respected firms in the consumer tech industry, says that if the Nokia Windows Phone deal works out, Microsoft will catapult above Apple in a matter of years.

"Until Nokia begins introducing Windows Phone-powered smartphones in large volumes in 2012, Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will only capture a small share of the market," the group said in a recent research report.

However, once that Nokia partnership does actually materialize, IDC believes it will have no trouble taking off. By 2015, the company says Windows Phone will take 20% of the smartphone market worldwide. In second place will be iOS with only 16.9%, it said.

However, Android will have no trouble growing even more, with an estimated 43.8% market share in four years, IDC predicted.

Although Nokia has had a very small presence in the US market for years now, its drop in Europe has been less significant, and it continues to have a humongous, monopolistic hold on developing parts of the world - countries no one else even bothers with.

Although they won't be the most profitable customers, if those third-world countries eventually start getting Windows Phone-powered Nokia devices, that alone would be enough to give a huge boost to the platform.

IDC did note, however, that for Nokia, things are likely to get worse before they get better, and as such it is recommending against investing in Nokia stock.

This comes after another report earlier this year suggested Windows Phone will also be a success story.

All of this speculation comes as the result of Nokia's partnership, because Nokia had such a storied history of success in the industry. It has created some of the most innovative and creative mobile devices of all time.

But is that really enough?

Nokia will continue to slip before Microsoft lifts it up with Windows Phone. It's crazy to think that a failing mobile manufacturer will turn a new mobile OS into a superstar, so these reports should probably be taken with a grain of salt.