Chicago (IL) – Japanese website PC Watch has published a (very) speculative outlook on the possible inner workings of the next Playstation, which may arrive sooner than expected, given the high cost and limited success of the current Playstation 3. The key message: Sony will cut down the production cost of the device and will compete much more in the market that Nintendo opened with the Wii.  

Remember the launch of the PS3 almost two years ago? It was by far the fanciest computing device you buy at the time and generated enough buzz to convince people to camp outside Best Buy stores for as long as a week. Described as a supercomputer for your TV, it was the most expensive game console ever offered ($599 for the 60 GB model) and promised much more realistic gaming experiences on high-def TVs.

Two years later, the buzz is gone and PS3 sales have trouble competing with the older Microsoft Xbox 360, while Nintendo still can’t produce enough Wiis to match global demand. Sony is estimated to have lost $3 billion with the PS3 so far and while the company is likely to reduce that amount over time, it is generally believed that the company will have a hard time to turn the PS3 into an overall profit.

With a lifetime of about 10 years, the PS3 has still about 8 years left, but its successor is estimated to surface in the 2012-2013 range and a new article published by PC Watch suggests that Sony may pull the PS4 into 2011. There is apparently enough reason to believe that Sony already has begun with the development of the next core hardware, which would support the 2011 launch estimate.

According to PC Watch, Sony will keep the Cell BE processor as the main engine of the console. However, while maintaining backwards compatibility, this new processor may look substantially different than the Cell BE in today.

The PS3 launched with a very power-hungry 90 nm Cell BE (8+1 core) processor with a die size of 235 mm2, which was recently replaced by a cheaper-to-manufacture 65 nm version with a die size of 175 mm2. We already know that the PS3 will get a 115 mm2 45 nm model in 2009, which is predicted to consume 42% less power than the 65 nm chip and 66% less than the 90 nm version – while running at an almost higher 25% clock speed (4 GHz vs. 3.2 GHz).  A redesigned 32 nm Cell BE is expected to become available in 2011, or just in time for the PS4.  

PC Watch speculates that this dramatically smaller CPU should offer room for more cores (24 or 32), but Sony is more likely to be much more restrained in this console generation and try to cut the production cost. The 45 nm Cell BE is said to support a clock speed of up 6-7 GHz, which suggests that Sony has an opportunity of finding a compromise between higher clock speed and more cores to cut cost. Other components of cost-cutting apparently include the integration of DRAM as well as graphics capability into the CPU die – and possibly a departure of the expensive Rambus XDR DRAM. The latter is doubtful, as 2011 may require a more modern memory architecture than DDR3 and there is no DDR4 in sight yet. XDR is really the only option for a new Playstation at this time.

If PC Watch is correct, than we should expect the PS4 to be much cheaper than the PS3 introduction price of $599. In fact, as it turns out that Nintendo found the winning hardware-software combination for this generation of game consoles, the publication speculates that Sony may head into a similar direction and go much more aggressively after casual gamers with subdued hardware. As a result, the Cell BE core and other hardware components may be cost-optimized for the PS4, while Sony may put a much greater focus on gaming ergonomics, which seems to be a plausible move.   

In the meantime, there are also rumors surrounding a new Wii, which is currently called Wii HD, and apparently also scheduled for a 2011 launch. While Nintendo’s current success suggests that the company will go with a slight refresh for its Wii, Whattheyplay.com heard that the console will get a true successor with HD capabilities.

What are your thoughts? What would you expect from a new Playstation? Leave us a comment below!