Over 44 million Americans will suffer from diabetes by 2034, up from a figure of 23.7 million this year.
And the cost of Medicare spending on diabetes will almost quadruple, rising from $45 billion this year to $171 billion in 2034.
A study, published in the December issue of Diabetes Care was compiled by a team from the University of Chicago.
The model monitors diabetes'' natural progress, effects of treatment and obsesity rates in the US.
Michael O'Grady, one of the authors and a senior fellow at the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago, said: "Obesity is a significant driver of future increases in the number of Americans with diabetes. High obesity rates among the American population over an extended period of time substantially increases the probability of developing type 2 diabetes."
Lead author of the paper, Dr Helbert Huang, said: "The size of the current diabetes population exceeds many prior forecasts and we expect that the future growth of population and its associated costs will be explosive. The best way to stem the dramatic rise in diabetes is to implement proven preventative carre programs on a national level."