Paramount seems to low-ball Transformers performance expectations

Posted by CB Droege

Paramount expects Transformers: Dark of the Moon to make $150 million dollars during the first 7 days after its release - including over the long Fourth of July weekend.

At the same time, Paramount says it believes the film is tracking well and will be a success.

"[Transformers: Dark of the Moon is] an incredibly engaging and immersive 3D experience," said Rob Moore, Paramount's Vice Chairman.

Interestingly enough, Paramount confirmed the film will be released a day early to 3D IMAX theaters, a move which will surely increase their per-ticket revenue overall.

This is especially likely considering the film was shot in 3D, which lends a lot of credence to the initiative in the eyes of movie-goers, most of whom now only bother with 3D if it’s not faked in post.

Still, $150 million dollars during the first week? 

Looking at the amount spent, and the expectations set by the previous films in this franchise, I would be surprised if it didn’t hit at least double that estimation.

In fact, if the film only hits $150 million, it will have been a box office failure compared to its brethren.

The move is leading some analysts to wonder what they’re up to, since it usually is most advantageous for a studio to have an accurate estimation of box office take, as estimating too high or low both have negative consequences.

Perhaps the studio knows something we don’t about the film’s potential draw.