Feature - T-Mobile's expected launch of the HTC Dream tomorrow marks the arrival of the so-called Google Phone or “gPhone”. While Google, HTC and T-Mobile engage in about as much pre-launch marketing activity as Apple did for its iPhone - virtually nothing – the device is creating lots of buzz, has almost entirely killed iPhone the mainstream media’s interest in iPhone stories, but is lined up next to the Apple smartphone. We don’t know much yet, besides a few features, such as a 3” touch screen, a QWERTY keypad, integrated WiFi, 3G and GPS as well as Google’s Android software platform. There will be some drawbacks as well – Android 1.0  will not support Bluetooth, some cutting edge features of the iPhone are missing and from what we have seen so far it won’t be a particularly pretty phone. Do we expect too much from Google and is the HTC Dream a good choice to showcase Android?      

Let’s be honest. There is an unreasonable amount of hype surrounding the G1 device, the name the HTC Dream is commonly referred to. In most cases, such hype is unjustified and causes not just journalists, but also consumers to be disappointed when the final product is eventually revealed. And there is a good chance that this huge hype, which has built up unrealistic expectations, will result in disappointment on Tuesday.

When compared to the iPhone, the G1 really can’t afford to have any significant weaknesses. Looking at what we know about the Dream, its weaknesses could kill any other $199 smartphone, but the HTC phone has the advantage that it will come with Google branding – and its highly anticipated new software platform called Android.

Dream is the launch device for Android and will test the consumer and developer market for the new OS. The reactions it received will be critical for Android, especially if Dream fails to impress.

What's in it for Google? With Android, the search giant is leveraging its search and mapping assets to take advertising to millions of mobile eye balls. Android's success will ultimately come down to the quantity and quality of third-party applications. Does Android stand any chance between the two featured platforms - RIM's BlackBerry and Apple's iPhone? Sure, but it is in danger of becoming yet another mobile platform. We looked at key variables of the equation to get a better picture of what we realistically should expect and what not.


The hardware

Dream is expected to come with a tilt sensor for gaming, a built-in camera and GPS but its design is nothing particularly exciting. If the leaked videos and pictures are any indication, this will be one ugly device with a plasticky feeling to it. The failure to create an attractive product could backfire at Android. We aren’t sure whether Google was able to influence the design, but Android certainly needs a unique design and the Dream may be a bit short on this one.


The operating system

Aimed at taking Google's lucrative keyword-based advertising business to the cellphone, Android arrives in a fragmented market that is populated with Windows Mobile, Symbian, BlackBerry, iPhone, and Linux-based LiMo devices. Nokia responded to Android by open-sourcing Symbian and some analysts even think the two platforms should merge into one.

Like the iPhone, Android comes with built-in applications that emphasize Google's strongest online assets, such as advertising, mapping and search. Android 1.0 appears to replicate most of the iPhone’s functionality feature by feature, minus the Apple elegance. It even has features that iPhone lacks, such as multi-tasking and copy and paste. But Android appears to be too much work in progress. The software delayed to Q4 and the version powering Dream comes without Bluetooth support. Most importantly, Android lacks advanced enterprise capabilities, which disqualifies Dream as a serious business device at this time.


The service

T-Mobile has not yet unveiled service plans for the Dream. However, there are Blackberry plans, which should be a good indication how much the Dream will cost over two years.  The carrier currently offers voice plans starting at $30 a month for 300 minutes. Combined voice and data plans with 1000 minutes and unlimited data start at $60 – not including 3G support, which is expected to become available for a premium.  This puts the cost of the Dream (with a two-year contract) on the same level as the iPhone and AT&T combo. T-Mobile plans to roll 3G service in 27 major U.S. cities by the beginning of October.


Third-party applications

Android comes with an App Store variant dubbed Android Market. It works without an application review process, which may result in a sizeable number of applications soon. Dream is likely to support both the Android Market and T-Mobile's own version of the App Store. The latter will support applications for all mobile platforms and handsets, with the exception of the iPhone. A lack of quality control could backfire, if too many useless and buggy applications make it to the platform.

Quantity will also matter, especially from day one. A healthy dose of developer enthusiasm suggests that enough compelling applications will be available when Dream ships.


The hype and cool factor

Dream launch is generating buzz, but it is less than what we have seen with the iPhone launch. Apple's handset is a prime example how hype and a perception of coolness can directly translate into big numbers.

Early estimates for the Dreams are not bad either. Research firm Strategy Analytics predicts 400,000 Android-powered smartphones will sell in the fourth quarter, which translates into about 4% of the U.S. smartphone market in that time frame. The number could be higher but, Dream's end of October availability limits its sales potential for Q4. The 400,000 Android estimate is modest compared to the 1.12 million first-generation iPhones shipped in its first quarter on the market. Apple is estimated to ship between 4 and 8 million iPhone 3Gs in the current quarter.


What to expect

The Dream and Android will not be perfect. Both are first generation launch products, which more than likely will have bugs. Unless you are willing to accept those bugs and unless you desperately need a new phone and you simply don’t want to be the next person on your block with an iPhone, we suggest a wait-and-see strategy.

Just like the iPhone, the Dream won’t be cheap, there will be good reviews and there will be bad reviews. To us, it does not seem like a fully-baked device yet. Android will get much more interesting in 2009 when Samsung and LG will have their first phones in the market. And by then, we should also have a better idea how good Sony Ericsson’s Xperia X1. And don’t forget Garmin’s Nuvifone, which is also expected in H1 2009.

There is lots of hype about the Dream, but if you look at the big picture, lots of nice phones will be releases within the next 6 months and if you have the time and patience to wait, we would recommend doing just that.

T-mobileG1

Sep 22, 2008 17:32     

Should be an exiting day at the New York Press Conference Tomorrow! I wonder what surprises Google will have up its sleeve. For all the latest news, info & video's regarding tomorrows event check out http://www.g1tube.com
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Will support bluetooth

Sep 22, 2008 17:44     

The phone will support bluetooth, but the API will not be open to developers in version 1.0. See http://android-developers.blog...ed-in.html
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Why?

Sep 22, 2008 19:00     

Why is everyone saying that it wont have bluetooth? It will have bluetooth its just people will not be able to develop any apps to use the bluetooth just yet because its not done(Like Bluetooth Gaming). [If you read closely, we are saying that Android won't support Bluetooth initially. -ed]
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Corrections

Sep 22, 2008 19:25     

"The software delayed to Q4 and the version powering Dream comes without Bluetooth support." I don't think the software was ever delayed in the traditional sense, since they promised 2nd half of 2008 (Q3/Q4) and Q4 is still 2nd half of 2008 (though it is clear they needed more time). Also the Dream will have Bluetooth support at the same level of the iPhone with just handsfree Bluetooth support, but no Bluetooth API (but it will come later on) just like the iPhone.

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need to be more clear about bluetooth

Sep 22, 2008 20:26     

It would have been nice if the bluetooth confusion was explained better. "[If you read closely, we are saying that Android won't support Bluetooth initially. -ed]" => when you say the OS doesn't support something the common sense understanding is that that feature wouldn't work even if the hardware supports it. So yes, this statement implies the phone will not have bluetooth! anyway what's the point of being cryptic about it?

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