Chicago (IL) - Election day isn't until November 4, 2008, and yet already politicians are using math to determine that McCain is ahead by 28 electoral votes.  One forecast model shows Democrat Senator Barrack Obama weighing in at 255.2 (47%), while Republican Senator John McCain pulls in a hefty 282.8 (53%) or about 27 more votes.  A recent Gallup poll shows the popular trend reversed - Obama receiving 48% of the vote with McCain receiving 44%.  If those votes could translate directly into the electoral college, it would be Obama 210 and McCain 192 (the remaining votes would go to 3rd party candidates).  So, do we believe the model or the poll?

The mathematical model research team is being led by professor Sheldon Jacobson of the University of Illinois-Urbana.  It involves others from his university as well as the University of Southern Illinois-Edwardsville.  They've put together a website which shows the forecasting trend.  Save computations are also shown, placing the race a little closer at Obama 233, McCain 247, only 14 votes apart.

The model factors in "lessons learned" from the 2000 and 2004 election, namely that the winner cannot be predicted based on on the popular vote.  In 2000, for example, Democrat Al Gore received a greater percentage of the nationwide popular vote, yet because of the way electoral votes are cast by each state, he lost the election.  A similar situation happened in 2004 when Kerry generally polled slightly ahead of Bush, yet lost the general election.

Still, researchers believe it is possible to get a reasonably accurate pictures just from math alone, even if that picture differs notably from the popular polls currently being taken.

Specific details of the mathematical model will be presented at an annual meeting of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS).  The meeting will be held less than three weeks before the election, October 13-15 in Washington DC at both the Marriot Waldman Park Hotel and the Omni Shoreham Hotel. More than 4000 analysts and experts in analytics are expected to be on hand.

According to the report, "Jacobson's model employs Bayesian estimators (which help scientists make decisions when conditions are uncertain) to determine the probability that a candidate will win each state. He obtains state polling data from Rasmussen Reports, the Quinnipiac University Poll, and SurveyUSA." State-by-state probabilities are then used in a dynamic programming algorithm to determine a probability distribution for the number of Electoral College votes that each candidate will win in the 2008 presidential election.

"We take into account 'safe' states— states that each candidate is basically guaranteed to win," says Jacobson. "In 2004, once you took into account Bush's 'safe' states, he had a much narrower gap to close to get to 270 electoral votes than Kerry."

Regardless of past performance with even "safe state" models, there are several factors which may change voter's minds this time, such as fuel prices and the continued Iraq War.  Whether or not the model can hold up to the real-world attitudes of the U.S. voters is a story we'll all find out in about six weeks.

McCain: "I'm a PC"

Sep 19, 2008 13:16     

I would think it would be a fantastic move by the McCain campaign to add it's own homemade video to the I'm a PC campaign. John McCain: "I'm a PC and I'm running for president."
Mike report abuse vote down vote up Votes: -3

Re: McCain: "I'm a PC"

Sep 19, 2008 13:38     

It would be more like this: "I'm a PC and I don't know how to turn myself on."
afstech report abuse vote down vote up Votes: -1

McCain: "I'm a Blackberry..."

Sep 19, 2008 14:03     

"...only I'm not black!".
StudyMaster report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +2

Re: McCain: "I'm a PC"

Sep 19, 2008 14:21     

Mike wrote: "John McCain: 'I'm a PC and I'm running for president.'" It's more like: 'I'm McCain and I'm walking for president'.
StudyMaster report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +3

Kerry ahead of Bush?

Sep 19, 2008 17:17     

"Democrat Al Gore received a greater percentage of the nationwide popular vote, yet because of the way electoral votes are cast by each state, he lost the election. A similar situation happened in 2004 when Kerry generally polled slightly ahead of Bush, yet lost the general election" Similar? How? Bush won a majority (not plurality) of the popular vote, something that hadn't been done since his dad did it in 88. So how are you going to suggest that that election win was some how unpopular or similar to 2000? I HATE it when tech sites get political. Just give me my tech news.

Luke report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +8

Re: Kerry ahead of Bush?

Sep 19, 2008 22:02     

Because only the Republicans have the power of manipulating the votes, or not counting the votes of an unfavorable neighborhood. Just think of the recent issue, where the GOP (in Minnesota was it?) tried to prevent people who underwent a forclosure from voting. Like if you can't handle your money, you are not allowed to vote for your nation's future course. The Republicans try it all the time to cheat their way into precidency and with Bush in 2000 it worked. Surprisingly it worked in 2004 again because the American people were too embarressed that it happened again and acted like the miscount didn't happen.

StudyMaster report abuse vote down vote up Votes: -5

Skeptic

Sep 20, 2008 02:17     

GOP did not try to prevent people in foreclosure to vote (Ohio, actually). What happened was that the DNC filed suit to prevent them from doing so, even though there was no indication of any such idea. Thus NPR could carry a piece of "news" that combined bad GOP with people losing their homes, yada, yada, yada...
James report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +1

-__-

Sep 20, 2008 11:19     

tg, please stop giving us politics. i know this is a bit techy, tryin to give info on how dumb this "hacker" was, but you know it just gets your stories more views and more comments. guys easy with the political debate. why not comment on the tech part soley? this guy was stupid and now he's going to feel the wrath of the government.
Craig report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

The National Popular Vote bill

Sep 23, 2008 15:44     

To make every vote in every state politically relevant and equal in presidential elections, support the National Popular Vote bill. The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 21 legislative chambers (one house in CO, AR, ME, NC, and WA, and two houses in MD, IL, HI, CA, MA, NJ, RI, and VT). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect. see http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

susan report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0