Chicago (IL) – Apple apparently can withstand the earthquakes that are rocking the financial world these days as analysts expect the company to once again turn in record sales for the quarter. Market watchers do not quite agree on Apple’s possible performance with iPhone sales estimates ranging from 4 to 8 million units for Q3. But even the lower number would be an impressive result in a time most IT firms are likely to face tougher quarters.

According to Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, Apple may sell 2.9 million Macs, 11 million iPods and 4.1 million iPhones in its fourth fiscal quarter (third calendar quarter) ending on September 30. His Mac estimates fall in line with previous estimates, while his 8% iPod growth tops Wall Street's 6% consensus. "Given concerns regarding iPod weakness, we believe the segment's outperformance relative to Street expectations is a positive," the analyst wrote in a research note. He expects Apple to report $8.5 billion in revenue and $1.19 earnings per share compared to Apple's own $7.8 billion revenue and $1.00 EPS guidance.

The analyst believes that quarterly Mac shipments will grow between 29% and 34% annually - up from the current 25% Street estimate, but down from 43% in the previous quarter. Munster said Mac sales decelerated in August due to reduced consumer spending and overdue product refreshes. ChangeWave’s research, however, puts Mac sales at record highs despite the decline in consumer spending. The rumor mill predicts October 14 MacBook refreshes and a mysterious new product code-named "Brick." Apple is also expected to gradually refresh its iMac, PowerMac and possibly Mac mini by year end and just in time for the January 2009 Macworld.


All eyes focus on iPhone 3G sales

Most investors are now eyeing iPhone 3G estimates for the quarter as a major new income source for Apple. Q3 will be the first full quarter of iPhone 3G sales since the phone’s July 11 debut, which means the quarter may be a good indicator of the handset's future potential. We know that Apple sold 1 million units during the launch weekend. Cote Collaborative analyst Michael Cote thinks that Apple shifted 3 million units a month later. iPhone 3G estimates for the current quarter differ greatly, depending on whom you ask.

Pacific Crest estimates iPhone 3G sales at 3.5 million units, Piper Jaffray puts it at 4.1 million and Credit Suisse at 4.2 million. But Citigroup's analyst Richard Gardner believes that the shipments will be twice that and Financial Alchemist's Turley Muller also talks about 8 million units for the quarter. So how do you go get from 3.5 million to 8 million?

The basis for Muller's estimate is the IMEI, basically an identification number unique to every mobile phone unit shipped. Analysts at the Mac Observer's Apple Finance Board are recording IMEIs from iPhone 3Gs in the wild in this spreadsheet in order to estimate the number of units sold. One particular IMEI caught everyone's attention because it strongly suggested sales of at least 5,649,000 iPhone 3Gs as of August 30.  5.6 million is still short of 8 million, but Muller details factors that bridge the gap.

First, a full month of September sales will add to the 5.6 million figure and international sales will also contribute to an increase. The iPhone 3G was launched simultaneously in 20 strong international markets and expanded into 22 new countries on August 22. The U.S. distribution channel was also expanded on September 9 when Apple added BestBuy and its 986 retail stores to the mix, increasing the number of iPhone 3G distribution locations in the U.S. by almost 50%.

The combination of September sales, international expansion and the addition of Best Buy stores in the U.S. could put the 8 million target within reach. Additionally, a recent manufacturing ramp to 800,000 units a week reveals Apple's intention to fill the channel with a few weeks of inventory before the end of the quarter. This fact will artificially increase sales data, because carrier sales are recognized when the shipment leaves the factory docks. Sales in Apple's retail stores are recorded when money changes hands.

Muller's 8 million estimate adds to the official 2.4 million first-gen iPhone shipments in the first half of 2008, meaning Apple could reach its target of selling 10 million iPhones in 2008 early.  

Evidence that Apple customers are LABOTOMIZED

Sep 18, 2008 12:31     

How can so many new potential customers NOT BE AWARE of the BIGGEST DISASTER Apple has ever seen BY FAR in its entire history with one single device - the 3G iFAILURE. They clearly do not even do the simplest form of Research into the product they are buying and trust all the Propaganda Apple VOMMIT out continously. It clearly shows that Apple are one of the MOST SICKEST DEVIANT IMMORAL companies on this Planet to continue to mass produce and flog this HOPELESSLY BROKEN BETA device to its customers as if nothing was seriously wrong from what is promised from the purchase deal. I can see endless lawsuits and media controversy DESTROYING Apple is the most PAINFUL drawn out way AND DESERVEDLY SO for such utter despicable insidious wretched GREED. :Z

iFAILURE report abuse vote down vote up Votes: -7

Let's hope the figures are closer to 8 million. Th...

Sep 18, 2008 13:50     

Let's hope the figures are closer to 8 million. They'll need every single iPhone sold to prove to WS that the company is worth a little more than $120 a share. One of the best quarters ever for the company. One of the worst quarters ever for the investor in a relative sense. Last year Apple was worth $200 a share and now it's $120 (and maybe not worth even that amount). Hardly a marked improvement with more retail stores, more iPhones sold, more laptop market share gained, greater cash reserve and added revenue from the App Store. The more money Apple brings in, the further the stock goes down. Apple has become the investor's black hole stock. Money pours in but never comes out.

Constable Odo report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +2

no research

Sep 18, 2008 16:10     

no research as in prevuisly owner of BLackjack , blackberry 8800 , current owner of iphone 2g iphone 3g , samsung Instinct ? i chosse iphone for my multi media.
@IFAILURE report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

iPhone CQ3 predictions

Sep 18, 2008 16:55     

The evidence for the 8 milliion estimate is a IMEI # end of august that is very weak data to conclude. No more evidence since and is seems that sales slowed down a lot since the middle of august. I would say it is wiser to stick with the proven expertise of Jaffrey and Garder that with the alchemy of an amateur blogger with no credential.
Hamourabi report abuse vote down vote up Votes: -2

Apple, Obama of the electronics world.

Sep 18, 2008 19:43     

All that plastic has been sold to suckers. congrats apple, you're like the Obama of the electronics world.
CockSucker report abuse vote down vote up Votes: -3

Labotomized is a Microsoft employee?

Sep 19, 2008 08:40     

To Labotomized, Do you work for Microsoft? Such comments reveal your one-sided biased approach. Apple customers make choices and they choose differently. Not everyone has to use MS Windows or their failed Windows Mobile or BlackBerry's RIM model, or even Google's Android. As they say in Australia. Cheers.
Alan Smith report abuse vote down vote up Votes: -1