Opinion – Some days just don’t turn out in the way you expect they would. In the case of Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer, their appearance at D6 and a demonstration of a multi touch interface of Windows 7 created lots of feedback from the media, but probably not quite the feedback they expected. Considering the critical voices surrounding Windows Vista, Windows 7 needs to deliver in every perceivable way. And even if Microsoft is very careful about giving out details about the new Windows, there appears to be a growing disappointment over what Windows 7 might or might not be. Can Microsoft afford another Vista?

Let’s be realistic. Microsoft is in a very comfortable position and Windows remains a castle no one has been able to dent since the software has become popular in the early 1990s. Microsoft expects that the installed base of Windows will have grown to more than 1 billion PCs worldwide by the end of next month. The client software business alone (which includes Office) brought in more than $4 billion in revenue and more than $3 billion in profit in the last quarter. By any standard, Windows Vista is selling like sliced bread, more than 100 million times within the first year after launch, which, admittedly, is due to the fact that pretty much every PC you buy today comes with the software by default.

But there is an undeniable disappointment over Windows Vista in the market, which even Gates and Ballmer admitted yesterday. Given the fact that it is pretty much a new operating system, the criticism is somewhat surprising to see – as is Gates’ remark that Vista has provided Microsoft with room for improvement. I won’t go into the flaws of Vista, I am pretty sure that most Vista users have their own preferences and their usage patterns impact what works and what does not work. I for myself compare Windows Vista to a Toyota Camry that runs on a 20 year old engine. It will get you and your family from A to B, albeit not in a particularly exciting way and while it does everything you expect from it, there is nothing that it does exceptionally well. Just like the Camry, it has received updates and a new look over time, but its overall appearance is relatively bloated today. Throw in a decades-old engine and you have a Vista-Camry.


A changing operating system market: An enthusiast tool that turns into a commodity and loses its excitement

My journalism career began about 14 years ago and my first assignment was to assist my senior editor at the time with the Windows 95 introduction coverage. I was about as geeky as you could get at the time and loved my Windows 3.11/DOS 6.2 PC. There were far less PC users than today and if you ran into another PC owner, there was a good chance you were talking to another geek who had quite a bit of knowledge how DOS/Windows worked inside and out. This excitement carried over to Windows 95 with people waiting in line at midnight for the software to become available. Windows 95 is especially remembered for its driver disaster that followed after the launch. Though, outside businesses, few complained – this was the way you expected Windows to work, with all of its flaws.

In the following years, Microsoft recognized that a software that was difficult to handle would not become a product for everyone. Virtually every Windows presentation I attended carried the message that a Windows PC should be as easy to use as your TV. If you listened carefully to Steve Ballmer’s presentations at the Windows Vista launch last year, this was exactly the message delivered through Visa: Windows has become the software that just runs and enables you to access your pictures, video, music, Internet and everything else you would ever expect from your operating system. However, what happened in the process is that all those fancy features like Flip3D (does anyone actually use it?) and the fancy GUI, which was supposed to be Vista’s biggest selling point, became irrelevant. Vista is a foundation for the applications you want to run and Microsoft has achieved that goal in a way that few may actually care how Vista looks like. What counts for most of us is how quickly, convenient and effective we can reach our goals on any particular day.

At least for me, Vista and Office have not shown measurable improvements in how quickly or how effectively I can get my email; access the Internet, transfer and view pictures or anything else. Music, pictures and video tasks actually have been transitioned to a Mac in our family, not because I find Apple’s commercials funny, but because Macs are faster and Apple has found a way to make usually boring tasks a bit more enjoyable. When was the last time I actually got excited when I turned on my Vista PC?

According to Microsoft, the biggest consumer complaint with Vista apparently was its user interface. There is very little we can do about this and we have learned to simply accept it the way it is. If you are truly unhappy with Windows, then you a choice: Go back to Windows XP and wait for Windows 7. In fact, I have noticed a volume of excitement for Windows 7 I haven’t seen with Vista and I believe that Microsoft has a huge opportunity with this release – to fix the Vista flaws and demonstrate that the company can still come up with those wow-features.  

But anyone who has a similar purpose-based relationship with Windows like me may have had a rude awakening when reading the news this week. First, we learned that Windows 7 is merely two evolutionary steps above Windows Vista, the core will remain untouched and a multi-touch screen feature will be one of its key features. Expect a 2009 Vista-Camry. At least we were happy to hear that the information of our source, who suggested a 2009 release date, was right on target.    

Read on the next page: Challenges and Opportunities, Conclusion