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Chicago (IL) – Steve Jobs' WWDC keynote has been officially confirmed and he is widely expected to pull 3G iPhone out of his pockets during his presentation. More launch details surfaced today, supporting the previously rumored launch date as well as the claim that the 3G iPhone will be available globally at or right after launch, depending on where you live.
Gadget blog Gizmodo added fuel to the speculations, saying that a "someone very, very close to the 3G iPhone launch" said that the handset will be introduced at the WWDC. The site Gizmodo reports that the handset will be available worldwide right after Steve Jobs’ introduction of the device during his WWDC keynote on June 9.
However, there will be slight delays for different geographies, if Gizmodo is right. For example, Spanish users will see the iPhone going on sale at the June 18 grand opening of Telefonica's mega store located in Gran Vía in Madrid, preceding a nationwide availability "right the next day or after a few hours." Other European countries will follow similar launch schedules.
Multi-carrier strategy
Apple’s expansion into new geographies brings new sales policies in some countries, breaking away from the exclusive carrier model that has worked well for the company in the U.S. In certain countries, multiple carriers be offering the device: For example, Vodafone confirmed it has inked a deal with Apple to bring the iPhone to Australia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Italy, India, Portugal, New Zealand, South Africa and Turkey. Since carriers in Italy and Australia also confirmed deals with Apple, it means Vodafone will have to share Australia with Telstra and Optus and Italy with Telecom Italia.
Latin America reportedly will show similar scenarios. Spanish-language business paper Cinco Dias reported that Apple may allow the iPhone to be sold through multiple carriers since no carrier is dominant across the region.
American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu said that by bringing more carriers to the game Apple can triple the addressable market for the iPhone, from 150 million potential customers today to about 470 million when the 3G iPhone debuts. Wu estimates that cumulative iPhone shipments will hit 14.6 million by the end of 2008, up from 11 million units he previously expected. The analyst believes that Apple will exceed the 10-million phonesby about one million units. The analyst also upped his 2009 iPhone shipments to reach 17 million units, up from previously expected 10 million.
New sales policies
Several industry watchers said that a multi-carrier strategy is likely to arrive in tandem with relaxed sales and pricing policies. We have already seen traces of flexible pricing when O2 in the UK and T-Mobile in Germany slashed the price of the 8 GB iPhone. Expect more such discounts, depending on region and carrier, most likely in countries with more than one iPhone carrier.
What about the U.S.? MacRumors speculated that even AT&T might offer a subsidy on the upcoming 3G iPhone with up to $200 in rebates. Technology Business Research analyst Ezra Gottheil agreed that it is not impossible that AT&T sits down and thinks "Hey, it's worth it for us to pay Apple the full price for the iPhone, plus give a piece of change to the consumer."
The new sales policy is a logical step in the right direction. Gizmodo claims that the iPhone has clearly "solidified its position as the cellphone to beat during last twelve months," concluding that the handset will "most probably be integrated in the usual marketing systems of carriers, with point-based trade-ups, discounts for carrier switchers, and other service-based subvention packages."
3G iPhone will generate higher sales
Increased sales that are expected from the 3G iPhone are unlikely to originate from organic growth as Apple expands iPhone into new geographies. A multitude of other factors could be working in Apple's favor. A ChangeWave Research survey among 3600 US consumers between March 17 and 24 revealed that nearly one out of four potential iPhone buyers has delayed a purchase until Apple offers a new model with 3G support. According to the survey, users mostly complain about the speed of AT&T's EDGE network.
21% of existing iPhone owners complained about the EDGE network speed and 17% were not happy that they weer forced to use AT&T as their carrier. However, a related ChangeWave report reveals that more people are switching to AT&T than to Verizon because of the iPhone, although AT&T's service is considered inferior. ChangeWave predicts that Apple can capture more than a third of smartphone sales within the next 90 days.
The hidden, untapped potential for the iPhone apparently is pricing. "Our polls have found that as soon as Apple was willing to drop the price, there would be a huge leap in demand," says ChangeWave director Paul Carton. "I don't think that has anything to do with the iPhone, but is all to do with the worsening economy. People are much more price conscious now than they were several months ago," Carton said.