Redmond (WA) – Less than a year from his previously announced departure from the company he co-founded, the Bill Gates today outlined his vision and opportunities for Microsoft.

According to Gates, there are currently six trends, which will be determining Microsoft and its product strategy for the years to come. In a rather unusual way, he mentioned the dramatic changes in the way the hardware engines that will be fueling new applications are engineered.

The fact that performance advances have shifted from a pure increase of clock speed to increased parallelism was described by Gates as a “challenge”. He believes that “parallel execution will be the primary way silicon power will be delivered” down the road and not so much the fact that there is more clock speed available. According to Gates, microprocessors will get to 10 GHz, “but not much further” (…) “even 5 to 6 years out.”

Interestingly, Gates mentioned only Intel by name as a partner in the approach to deliver fine-tuned, parallel code.

The ubiquity of broadband was next in line in Gates’ vision, with opportunities that go beyond simple web surfing but provide distributed computing capabilities for many more users than today – through “mega datacenters that companies such as Microsoft will build.” Broadband also extends to additional opportunities such as off-site storage technologies to provide more reliable backup solutions for users, as well as connected mobile devices and enhanced information devices.

Lastly, Gates spent some time on natural user interfaces, which he considers “one of the most revolutionary things going on” and Microsoft apparently will be spending more time on. A “Surface” device was briefly demonstrated with future applications – but in terms of a current success in natural user interfaces, Gates had to point to competitor’s products: Nintendo’s Wii game console as well as Apple’s iPhone.

lol

Jul 26, 2007 12:23     

This is coming from a guy that said we only need around 300kb of ram.
mjw report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

WinTel?

Jul 26, 2007 12:27     

Microsoft and Intel seem to be working together. This is why I use eComStation - http://www.ecomstation.com - and AMD.
TomLeeM/BigWarpGuy report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Heard things like this before

Jul 26, 2007 12:45     

Gates said back in the 80's that he never saw a need for hard drives past, i think he said, 2gigs. Plus all these new technologies he speaks of, while it would be neat to see, few ever really come about. Nintendo and Apple have really pushed things in recent years and hopefully more companies will get on board and that will bring more innovations. Either way, don't get your hopes up to much, just wait it out and see.

Parrdacc report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Uh no.

Jul 26, 2007 12:54     

No mjw. He didn't. And he's probably right. Considering now the focus is on multi-core chips, not clock speed its probably right for the foreseeable future. The Core 2 architecture currently tops out around 4GHz with normal methods of cooling. New chip architectures are also leveraging more instructions per clock rather than ramping clock speeds. Some tasks will always benefit from high clock speed but with multi-threaded code coming into fruition more and more, that will change as time goes on. Now once we hit the point where getting more cores on a die has diminishing returns and more complexity than ramping clock speed, then we might see a return to focus on clock speed. But at 3GHz, processors are fast enough to do simple tasks easily and branched, multi-threaded code is more efficient with multi-core processors than single thread code on single core, faster processors.

David report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Microsoft and AMD work together too

Jul 26, 2007 13:02     

Look at Windows XP/Server 64-bit extensions before you start saying "Wintel"
bfellow report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Gates has no basis to comment

Jul 26, 2007 13:03     

As I recall, he dropped out of college and this is an electrical engineers job to say whether CPUs hit 10GHz or not. Gates doesn't have any scientific basis to say whether or not CPUs will hit 10GHz, and neither do I. Leave it to actual engineers.
hahahack report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

More Gates Wisdom...

Jul 26, 2007 13:09     

This from the guy who said there was no business model in the internet and that spam would be a thing of the past by now. BillyG may be a lot of things, but he's not a futurist. There is very little value in his speculations.
GZ report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Way to go Bill, you think that processor speeds wil...

Jul 26, 2007 13:20     

Way to go Bill, you think that processor speeds will not increase much but parallelism will? How revolutionary! Seriously, I'm pretty sure that everybody has known this for the past couple of years. As for putting a firm 10gHz number on it, that is just pure speculation.
gm0n3y report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

And

Jul 26, 2007 13:21     

I forgot to mention, that whole 300kB of memory quote is so misused its getting really annoying.
gm0n3y report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

The truth!

Jul 26, 2007 13:21     

Man will never fly. Travelling faster than 40mph will rip the air right out of your lungs. The car is a toy that will never see practical use. Limiting predictions only prove one thing. Humans break limitations.
kw report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

@ david

Jul 26, 2007 13:34     

Back in the day Bill Gates did say that no one would ever need more than 640k of RAM. Technology will continue to advance and we will see faster and faster processors. Clock speed is now irrelevant so I have no idea why he said this.
chris report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Previous quotes

Jul 26, 2007 13:39     

It's not manufacturers trying to rip anybody off or anything like that. There's nobody getting rich writing software that I know of. The best way to prepare [to be a programmer] is to write programs, and to study great programs that other people have written. In my case, I went to the garbage cans at the Computer Science Center and fished out listings of their operating system. There are no significant bugs in our released software that any significant number of users want fixed. Microsoft looks at new ideas, they don't evaluate whether the idea will move the industry forward, they ask, 'how will it help us sell more copies of Windows?' last one About 3 million computers get sold every year in China, but people don't pay for the software. Someday they will, though. As long as they are going to steal it, we want them to steal ours. They'll get sort of addicted, and then we'll somehow figure out how to collect sometime in the next decade.

System48 report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Until

Jul 26, 2007 13:41     

10ghz until we get rid of silicon all together and start using DNA computers the size of ice cubes and one day maybe 40-100 years from now they'll have it so the user him/her self will be the actual 'computer' or at least a part of it.
Steve-o report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Gates wants to buy AMD

Jul 26, 2007 13:42     

if he says something only intel. MS has a long plan of entering hardware market.
mslover report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Re: Don't get your hopes up

Jul 26, 2007 13:49     

While I agree w/ not getting your hopes up ever, looking at what Microsoft has done with surface (if you haven't checked it out, do so, it's amazing), they've really got a great product on the verge of completion, granted their timeline is quite long, but MS is historically very good at avoiding vaporware... they might pull features and delay, but not like other companies. He's likely right about the clock speed, I don't even really see it getting that high in the timeframe he mentioned, parallel processing is the way to go, any supercomputer you see utilizes the idea of parallel processing so it's natural for home PCs to go that route, the idea now is to train programmers to optimize for it, and to develop compilers that strongly utilize the resources available.

Kellen report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

software people predicting hardware advances

Jul 26, 2007 14:12     

How many people actually have a knowledge of hardware? Seems like many of the comments from software programmers who I believe are not even close to being qualified to comment on topic of maximum hardware performance. As a IC design engineer, there's no way I would place a limit on future progress. At the same time, I'm not predicting what can be done with software either. 640k of memory comments, 20MB hard drive is huge, 16 color display is more than enough, I continue to laugh at those who use their mouths rather than their brains.

IcePop report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

clock speed limit

Jul 26, 2007 14:34     

I can remember when practically everybody in the industry was predicting that clock speeds would hit a wall at about 40 MHz!
Jerry report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Haters

Jul 26, 2007 14:47     

I dislike Windows/Gates haters. Just a bunch of bandwagon haters "fighting the power". If it wasn't for Microsoft and Gates today's computer experience could be very different - controlled by China for instance. If any man has basis to give a prediction for the future of computing it's Bill Gates. He has obviously been right more than anyone else and was smart enough to bet on his predictions. I do not like everything abotu MS Windows and frankly think it's getting worse. But I don't blame MS for that. They are simply giving the people and press what they want: dumbed down operating system that holds your hand to an annoying degree and does keep you safe. I hate the PRESS.

John Doe report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Half of you are missing the point

Jul 26, 2007 14:49     

This is not comparable to saying that we will never need more storage space, more ram, etc. He is not saying that we will not use more power, just commenting on the method we will use to gain the increase in power. Not to say that he is correct or incorrect, but try to at least understand his point before judging.
Justin report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

You showed him

Jul 26, 2007 15:01     

Wow, such cutting, insightful remarks directed at Bill, that multi-billionaire you'll never be. I bet he's red-faced after reading all your witty comments. Oh wait, I don't think he cares.....
joe report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Bill was right, according to scientists

Jul 26, 2007 15:18     

i recall an article written in popular science a couple years back. At MIT and a couple other school they artificially produced diamonds. that technology is not new, the diamonds they produced were pure, more perfect than diamonds found in the wild. This led to research into diamond processors. Silicon has limited conductive capabilities before it breaks down. Diamonds can go 10x what silicon can. Scientists estimate silicon processors maxing out at about 10Ghz, Billy G was dead on. Diamond processors have the capability of going well past 100Ghz, most likely topping out at around 120Ghz. However, this technology is still AT LEAST 5 years away before we even see a working diamond processor. Yet another topic Bill got correct, not passing 10Ghz before 5-6 years. I guess Bill actually knew his facts for this one

no time like the future report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

MHz race?

Jul 26, 2007 15:31     

I thought the MHz race was over.*roll*
Pusur report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Light is the future

Jul 26, 2007 15:57     

Someone correct me if i'm wrong, but we are able to achieve these improvements in speed and power consumption by using ever smaller processes in die manufacture. Eventually we won't be able to go any smaller. Than all that will be left is total switch to different "technology". Photons, or as someone already said DNA. So when Gates says 10GHz, he might not be far off. He's definitely right that it will happen. To go a little of subject, any particular field eventually tops out, and progress stops. When was the last time you've seen a significant advance in jewelery making or pottery. We just happen to live in time when stuff is advancing and getting better day in and day out, but don't forget that for a few thousand years there was no significant change in anything (2000BC-1300AD). We will get there again.

Sedef report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

ONLY 10 Ghz?

Jul 26, 2007 16:12     

I thought by then all CPUs will be optical running at 30 Petahertz (X-Ray).
enewmen report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Forget DNA computers

Jul 26, 2007 16:45     

Bring on quantum computers. I want to be able to download my 20 TB file instantly!!
James report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Qualified

Jul 26, 2007 16:50     

Not that I believe Bill is qualified to make that kind of statement. However one poster said how could a software guy make a comment like that? Simple software drives hardware. It always has and probably always will. Software Engineers are constantly pushing hardware to it's limits. If we didn't there would be no need for faster computers.
James Jones report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Harvord Paid OFF!!!!

Jul 26, 2007 16:54     

Mr. Bill Gates evidently did not think through once he made that statement. If he would sit down and take the time and read through Intel's website he would realize that a new type of processor is being created through light! Of course you may need a mainframe at the current moment to run the processor but the limitation is the sky!!! I guess poor Bill has been put out of the loop for awhile now!
Brad Burnett report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

@Christ

Jul 26, 2007 17:21     

No. He didn't. From wikipedia: "* 640K ought to be enough for anybody. o Often attributed to Gates in 1981. Gates considered the IBM PC's 640kB program memory a significant breakthrough over 8-bit systems that were typically limited to 64kB, but he has denied making this remark.[2] Also see the 1989 and 1993 remarks above. I've said some stupid things and some wrong things, but not that. No one involved in computers would ever say that a certain amount of memory is enough for all time... I keep bumping into that silly quotation attributed to me that says 640K of memory is enough. There's never a citation; the quotation just floats like a rumor, repeated again and again. * Bloomberg Business News (19 January 1996); also WIRED (16 January 1997) Do you realize the pain the industry went through while the IBM PC was limited to 640K? The machine was going to be 512K at one point, and we kept pushing it up. I never said that statement — I said the opposite of that. * U.S. News & World Report (20 August 2001) "

David report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

10GHz and beyond Now!

Jul 26, 2007 17:55     

10Ghz and beyond is attainable using silicon-germanium (SiGe)chips or so IBM claims. According to their researchers along with Georgia tech, they achieved an operating speed of 350Ghz at room temperature.Astonishingly they claim it may be able to operate at 1THz in the future!!! What operating tests they ran I cannot say but I hope there is further research in this area. Only problem I see is those chips might cost a wheelbarrow of money. This data is on the IBM press release site

tobago report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Maybe Bill Gates is correct

Jul 26, 2007 18:12     

I remember last year, IBM and Georgia tech reacked half TeraHz (500 something GHz) in a lab using an altered silicon based microprocessor. Even though it was tested and published the record, I didn't hear any practical applications. If someday IBM gonna take that technology out from laboratory to dinning room, might we can see 10GHz. Also I read that diamond processor story too. Plus, Intel's photonic modulator leap achieved y'day will play a key roll in such GHz race. So... might, Bill Gates is right.. who knows, will wait and see. But I doubt intel/AMD gonna make a U-turn from multi-core to mono-core.

Nuwan report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

top out at 10 GHz

Jul 26, 2007 18:52     

Current processor clock speed will reach an upper limit soon, if you just simply look at semiconductor physics and the switching rates of transitors. This is why Intel and AMD are spending more money and effort to design more efficient processor cores, integer, and floating point units. Remember a 10GHz processor won't do you any good if you have dog slow memory. B.D.
B.D. report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

10Ghz

Jul 26, 2007 19:14     

The USA Gov alone advances technologically by 42 years for every 1 year of the public sectors technology and has been doing so since the late 40's. It was estimated that the Gov is now approx 1200 years ahead of public science (that was in 2005). Im sorry to say you tards, but the technology is already made, usable and existant. The only thing standing between it is the Governments will to share, which is like finding water in a desert.

R report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

IBM's 350GHz

Jul 26, 2007 21:04     

IBM's 350 GHz was a single transistor not a fully working processor.
wrack report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

yeah quantum computer

Jul 26, 2007 21:21     

Any mathematical equations and encryption will be solved instantly.
haylui report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

350GHz

Jul 26, 2007 21:29     

like wrack said, it was a single transistor and was not made for the purpose of home computing.
josh report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Bill Bill....

Jul 26, 2007 21:31     

C'mon Bill, don't you learn from your mistakes? First the RAM now this? No we'll have 2 quotes to ridicule you by (although being the richest man you probably don't give a crap). Sure the multicore is the way to go but a 3 GHz quad core is faster than 2GHz. Intel and AMD both know this. With current manufacturing technologies I think they (intel, AMD, IBM, and whoever may want to get a piece of this) will run into a multiple core barrier faster than they are running into GHz problem from past to today. Sure intel has an 88 core prototype but how big and how power hungry is that thing? Aside from that I've heard that Georgia tech had a single transistor based on altered silicon working at some ridiculous speeds at room temperature. Sure it's a single transistor now, but wait for it. When transistor was invented back in the day, no one could even imagine the uses we have today like easily accessible porn and the ability to virtually perform multiple homicides. Wait for it. (Or go and develop it if you're one of the brains). Besides this debate will be ridiculous once we hit quantum computer age. Hello new age of gaming consoles. To conspiracy guy above me. So the government has cured cancer, AIDS and flu, drives around in fusion powered vehicles and occasionally certain members go and visit different galaxies when on vacation. Riiight. They might be concealing certain facts and be a few steps ahead but not 1200 years.

Prankster report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Re: 10Ghz

Jul 27, 2007 00:42     

You sir, are a complete idiot! How many billions of dollars do you think have been invested to get current processing the way it is today? Do you honestly believe your very troubled and debt-ridden government has been able to spend billions of dollars on computer processor technology? The government is unable to spend enough money to keep up with the consumer driven market. Oh yes, they are 1200 years ahead of public science.. pull yourself out of your dreamland and WAKE UP!

ChOOkiE report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

It's called the physics of silicon. Duh!

Jul 27, 2007 00:45     

It's called the physics of silicon. Duh! To clock faster got to abandon the silicon
kb report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

1200 years

Jul 27, 2007 00:51     

come on dude, for real, the government probably has some defense contracts that are more advanced than shit we have in our games but to say that they have a supermulti core personal computer and just "arent sharing" is retarded.... think before you speak for christ sake
bret report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

question for @ Christ

Jul 27, 2007 01:17     

If Gates never said 640K would be all the memory we would ever need, then why are all of IBM compatible computers based at 640k, even today??? Win 9x, 2K, XP and even Vista systems are still using some sort of extended or expanded memory code to see memory (RAM modules) that are greater than 640K in size. It's still true to today that MS is still using old code for their base OS infrastructure. You won't see scripts in a batch file executing during the initial bootstrap, but it's still there. Whatever happened to instant on? Uh, I'll tell ya, the OS, while pulling up it's bootstraps is still looking at 640K, then it's detecting the rest of the memory. It's able to find the larger amounts of memory today much faster than yesterdays computers and software only because everything is much faster today, duh!!! "640K" was an actual "quote" from Billy Boy no matter how many times he tries to deny it. No, I ain't a multi-gazillionaire like BG and I couldn't care a less whether he could give a fart about what I have to say. All I know for fact, it that all the the hardware that's still being pumped out today, is still being designed around yesterdays stupidity.

huh? report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Funny all the jealousy

Jul 27, 2007 02:05     

Poor guy drops out of college and becomes the richest man in the world, yet here are a bunch of computer nerds, probably making $6/hour in the Geek Squad at Best Buy, criticising his opinion. Go back to your l33t little AMD Ubuntu terminals and let the guy speak. Gates has forgotten more about computer technology than any of you sexless dweebs will ever know.
Johnny on the Spot report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

um. if you guys read the article it says

Jul 27, 2007 04:36     

clock speeds for consumer cpus will only reach 10 ghz in the next "5 to 6 yrs" at most. Not forever. Especially, when I'm sure he knows that gallium processors have already reached 500ghz.
loujob report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

huh?!

Jul 27, 2007 04:39     

I really doesnt think 640K limit has much to do with the famous quote, who said it is another question, it rather should be a limit based on the first x86 processor which where 16bit.
Marcus report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Laughable

Jul 27, 2007 04:42     

I find some posts here laughable. Sure Bill Gates is a college dropout, but why did he do it? ONLY to create the largest company in the world... Although this is not the norm nowadays, there are a lot of major executives out there who did not finish a college education, and that didn't do them any harm. If you don't like MS, don't use their stuff. As the UNIX/Linux fanboys are keen to say, there's plenty of choice out there!

Maxwell Demon report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

hes not speculating about what will come after

Jul 27, 2007 04:46     

those 5-6 years. Just what he knows, based on current patterns for the next 5 - 6 yrs. Hes not saying there will be no thermoelectric advances coming up or anything else. Just that for the next 5-6 years, performance advancements for cpus will be brought on by adding multiple cores and not by increasing the clock frequency
loujob report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

@huh?

Jul 27, 2007 06:20     

"If Gates never said 640K would be all the memory we would ever need, then why are all of IBM compatible computers based at 640k, even today???" "All I know for fact, it that all the the hardware that's still being pumped out today, is still being designed around yesterdays stupidity." You just answered your own question. It has nothing to do with the quote. All it has to do with is that there still is some legacy code in today's OS's. And when the computer is first booting up, why does it need more than 640k? All its doing is initializing hardware. Why exactly would it need 2GB of RAM to do that? And looking at more memory wouldn't make the computer boot insanely faster. It still has to initialize the hardware before it can load drivers, load the kernel, and boot the OS. And you can believe that that quote is real all you want. Fine. Now prove it. Every time it has ever been said, there has never been a citation. Just the quote. Prove it was said, then people will actually believe you. For now it remains a stupid, overused quote that didn't happen but that people continue to use because they don't like Bill Gates.

David report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Bill Challenge

Jul 27, 2007 06:59     

Bill should be thinking how Microsoft will produce a Windows version that will transform a 10 GHZ 80 cores chip into a machine so slow as typical pc runs today with Vista. But don't worry Bill, I'm sure you will do it, and then Intel will invent another faster chip and you will do it again and again... If the computers of today are the supercomputers of 5 years ago, why they don't are supercomputers?

Fernando_Brasil report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Cool down dudes

Jul 27, 2007 09:34     

So, if and when we get to 10gigs, what kind of insane cooling system are the CPUs going to need. Even as we speak now, people have a hard time coming up with a conveinent solution to cool down the 8 core CPUs. We're probably going to need liquid nitrogen for a 10 gig chip if and when it comes out. Silcon can only do so much and it'll pretty much be at its limit if it ever hits 10gigs. It's time to finally move beyond silcon and Gates can actually be right with that statement, as much as I do not really like agreeing with him.

Podude report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

RE: Gates has no basis to comment

Jul 27, 2007 09:39     

I'm sure that Bill just sits around and makes stuff up. "You know what guys, I don't think we'll pass 10Ghz anytime time soon! I think I'll make announcement about it." Being one of the wealthiest individuals in the world, running a company that basically controls the OS market, it's not like he could be getting this info from engineers or anything.
Dylan report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

silicon has It's limits

Jul 27, 2007 10:24     

I don't think silicon can handle 10ghz. I'm no engineer, but I think it will melt if it is supposed to go that fast. It will only be able to go faster than 10ghz after the move to silicon carbide, which doesn't melt at any known temperature.
tony report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer are a Joke...

Jul 27, 2007 18:21     

Have you see microsoft predictions before? Bill gates said that there will be no more DVD in the near future, and now HD DVD are everywhere. They do not know what they are saying. I can predict that some day man will walk in Mars and may be they do, but I have not any basis to say that. Microsoft is a piracy company (they do not invent their products, they copied or brought form other companies) and you can be sure that what ever microsoft says, is pure speculation. None of the microsoft predictions has came true. Not even for their products (remember how many features were cut form VISTA before its release?).

Viktor report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

like 1000 terahertz

Jul 28, 2007 15:30     

When tupac died he left a plan to create faster chips in his rap albums.
cokanballz report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

@ David

Jul 28, 2007 18:00     

"You just answered your own question. It has nothing to do with the quote. All it has to do with is that there still is some legacy code in today's OS's." Yeah, there still is legacy code left, for what? To see beyond 640k. Remember the older PCs? While they pulled themselves up by their bootstraps, their BIOSs would do a self test each time it booted up and also would do a memory detection. Windows OSs still use some type of extended memory management to see beyond 640k. The motherboards of today are still built for this purpose. Remeber MS stating Vista was going to be a whole new platform that wasn't going to be built upon the same standards that yesterdays systems were built upon? What happened to that new technology? I'll tell you, if MS developed an OS that was able to boot directly to a log on screen, how could companies who used NT or W2K or XP upgrade to the new OS? 640k was said, enough said. I ain't a tech. I read. I build my own systems. Just know it was said at one time. When somebodies rich enough, people forget (who are getting paid by them) real fast about their moronic bosses speeches. Sure BG is more intelligent then I could ever hope to be. But nobody should ever speculate what technology is going to be like in the future when nobody knows for sure what our future will bring.

huh? report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Huuuum dinger

Jul 29, 2007 08:53     

LOL Well, I am not that smart but, remember when parents or people would say "you can't do that" or "your not smart enough" or anyhting like that??? THOSE KINDS OF STATEMENTS DRIVE PEOPLE TO SUCCEED OR ACCOMPLISH THINGS!!! He may have said these things for whatever reason but, somewhere out there someone is thinking to himself "I THINK I CAN DO THAT OR BEAT THAT" Hence one of the reasons that accomplishments are made. Laterzzzzz

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