When I was briefed on Surface (previously code-named Milan) a few days ago, I was incredibly impressed.  Having gotten used to disappointments like Origami, Zune, and even the Media Center PC where Microsoft didn’t actually finish the offering, this product was a breath of fresh air, largely because it was complete.

 

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Microsoft unveils Surface computer (6 images) ...

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As they walked me through the implementation, it was clear that they had thought through the user interface, the hardware, the initial customer set, service, and economics. It does not happen too often with any vendor, that I do not leave thinking they forgot something with regard to the product. But when I left Microsoft, I felt they touched about pretty much everything, except the fact how much this product was likely to really upset companies like HP, Dell, and Gateway.   

But before we go there let’s talk a bit about what Milan is.


Milan:  Surface Computing

Milan, in many ways, is Microsoft actually channeling Apple (and their iPod) really well for once. What makes the iPod special is that it is a complete offering that includes hardware, software, services and content. Milan is all of that, but it is targeted at a different audience (at least for now, though, I think you will want one of these things at some point).

Picture a table that is a PC with a protected high resolution screen and virtual objects you can touch.  Also imagine no connection to the traditional Windows. While Windows Vista is the engine you only see the simplified interface much like you would see a simplified Mac OS interface with the iPhone or AppleTV.The closest thing to the initial interface is the TouchSmart interface HP created for their desktop TouchSmart PC, except unlike the HP, you stay within this interface all of the time. This is consistent with the TiVo interface that hides Linux and is as visually attractive as anything Apple has done to date (Leopard isn’t out yet so it doesn’t count).   

Once you touch something, you will get an animation (much like Apple and HP) as the object opens into the application which also uses touch (there are no mice or keyboards needed for most activities).  The screen actually “sees” things, it isn’t a digitizer it uses actual cameras.   This means when you put your glass on the table it knows it’s a class and could provide information on what your are drinking (not too exciting), but it could also see your credit card (if it had the right coding) and after showing you your bill, all you’d have to do is place your card on the table, add a tip, and you are on to the next club.  (I hate waiting for the bill).  

Yes, initially this product isn’t for your living room, much like the original Atari pong systems this starts in bars, hotels, and restaurants.  


Perfect Zune and group gaming

Let’s say you want to put new music on your wireless Zune (or Microsoft Smartphone). All you do is place it on the table, the code on the back tells the table how to communicate with the Zune, logs you into your account, and now you can visually select the songs you want to add to the player. If you like the songs the DJ is playing at the club, or in the hotel, with one quick motion they can be on your Zune (or other compliant wireless player.)
The same could be true of movies or TV shows that you pick up in airports or hotel lobbies.   

But interactivity goes farther. Since the table can “see”, you can have generic puzzle pieces, clear pieces of glass with codes only the table can see. When you place them on the table the video or pictures can be projected through them, and then they become, visually, something else.  Think of game pieces like jigsaw puzzles that are videos that you could move around. Of course, I was thinking of the battle chess like game that was in the Episode IV Star Wars movie and how something like that could be made to work here (this thing would be perfect for Real Time Strategy Games).

 

 

What the Media Center should have been

Within three minutes of seeing the product in use, it was clear this is closer to what the Media Center Computer should have been in terms of simplicity and ease of use.   Granted you wouldn’t have needed the touch interaction (though it would have been cool for high-end devices) and would have used a remote instead.
The Media Center PC failed and HP the market leader exited, because the product wasn’t easy enough to use. Milan does a fantastic job correcting this mistake.  

As mentioned above, the interface is as good or better (I would argue “better” because it is more graphically rich) than Apple TV and it is in line with the top interfaces we have seen at CES for several years now.  

You can live in the interface which would mean no walking up to the screen with a keyboard and mouse to change settings, and because the system is services based, any settings could be made from a remote desktop PC or by a service on your behalf.    This is the user experience the Media Center PC should have had and didn’t get.


Why the PC vendors will likely be upset

These guys have been asking for a product like this from Microsoft for some time.  The fact they actually built it but, not for the OEMs, for themselves is likely going to do more than raise a few eyebrows over at Dell, HP, and Gateway.  HP and Gateway, in particular, massively invested in specialized Media Center hardware that would have likely been successful had Microsoft done for Media Center what they did for Milan.  They didn’t and both companies were hurt as a result and had to abandon their efforts.   
The OEMs have already been grumbling about the Xbox which also came closer to what they wanted. Milan is likely to create even deeper concerns that Microsoft is going into the hardware business and increasingly becoming a competitor.  Concerns like these motivated Dell to make a move with Linux on the desktop and others may increasingly be motivated to find an alternative to Microsoft as a result of Milan.   

Of course, this could be undone, at least mostly, if Microsoft uses Milan to create the right Media Center product and/or licenses Xbox to the OEMs for future offerings bringing them back into the ecosystem.  This is consistent with Bill Gate’s historic strategy but Bill is less and less involved at Microsoft and it isn’t clear if his vision is Microsoft’s going forward.  


When you will get Milan for the living room

As it currently exists, Milan costs between $15,000 and $20,000 which is ok for the audience (bars, hotels, restaurants) it is initially targeted for. It will take at least three years for the technology to drop enough in price to be attractive (probably around $4000) for the high-end of the broad consumer market, and another two or three years to drop below $1000. So, you won’t be getting one of these things, at least as it is currently being demonstrated, anytime soon, unless you have a lot of cash on your hand.  

Much like it was in the early days of Pong, this is a device we will likely want long before we can afford it and those who find a way to get, will have serious neighbor envy benefits. The question is how long it will take Microsoft to realize that the interface could turn an entire category of products into more successful offerings for the broad market.

The other question is, given both how well this was done and that the hardware OEMs were bypassed, how much of the “new”, post Gates, Microsoft does this represent? At least from the standpoint of actually completing offerings, if this is a sign of things to come, it is a good sign.


Rob Enderle is one of the last Inquiry Analysts.  Inquiry Analysts are paid to stay up to date on current events and identify trends and either explain the trends or make suggestions, tactical and strategic, on how to best take advantage of them.  Currently he provides his services to most of the major technology and media companies. 

 

Media Center PCs?

May 30, 2007 15:01     

The media center platform (of which HP currently offers many variants, search on "Media Center" at HP.com)- especially on Vista, is very impressive and intuitive to use. Also, can you please explain what you mean when you say "license Xbox to the OEMs for future offerings"?
Chris report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

I've been talking and writing about this very type ...

May 30, 2007 15:39     

I've been talking and writing about this very type of product and software publicly since 1985. I long ago got used to people and companies making use of my ideas and copying my software ideas, so I don't mind that Microsoft is doing this, of course. What I do mind is when they are given credit for innovating when they are merely copying. You wrote, "The question is how long it will take Microsoft to realize that the interface could turn an entire category of products into more successful offerings for the broad market." Well, duh. I hate to break the news to you but this is exactly what my touchscreen work has been about since 1985. I'll give you a clue to the future that you need. This can all be done (is being done) with GPL'd free software already, with one important breakthrough that Microsoft is missing - X. X is, you see, not just a 3D rendering display protocol - it's also a network protocol. And what is the significance of that, you ask? Well, the significance of that is that you can do this right now with GPL free software on a touchscreen display that doesn't even need to be connected to a computer because the content is entirely network driven. In plain English, if you do this with X then you don't need special touchscreen code or even a computer on the local network - your display's wireless network makes PC's themselves unnecessary. I'm not speculating at all - I've been at this for more than 20 years and I see absolutely nothing new in what Microsoft itself is doing here. I do see a lot of PR spin, however. What you are looking at, really, isn't new, but it is the future. Touchscreens are collaborative communications systems which allow the development of new types of graphic languages with which we will communicate and work together. These will be GPL'd systems, however - much less expensive and much more versatile than anything that Microsoft can offer.

Gene Mosher report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Quit workin on other junk

May 30, 2007 16:23     

and Fix Vista. And hire that Gene guy, who posted above me. He has alot of time on his hands. I am sure he will help.
Sasparilla Mayonase report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

hmm

May 30, 2007 17:21     

well...Gene...you could always sue Microsoft for copyright and or patent infringement... ...err wait ...within the last 20-some-odd years since 1985 you did take steps to protect your ideas.... ...right?
neka report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

It can see your credit card

May 30, 2007 17:39     

I can only imagine the viruses that will snag pictures of your credit card and candid photos...
steve report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

More temporary MS Hardware

May 31, 2007 16:30     

I had the MS Phone. Great until they dropped support. Same with all other MS hardware. Has ANY MS hardware survived? Not that I know of. Sort of like their graphics apps. Surface looks great. How long till support is dropped?
r report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

credit where credit is due

Jun 03, 2007 14:37     

I wonder if anywhere on the table there will be a note that says "inspired by Star Trek: The Next Generation in particular and Science Fiction art in general"
Lee report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Ambient light for Media Center PC

Jun 05, 2007 13:29     

Media center is a great thing. It open the way for otherwise not available living room gadgets. One great example if the ambient light for media center PC from http://www.a-r-e.nl
lightsaber report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0