We just started to like the concept of the UMPC. But the truth of the matter is that the UMPC, at least in the shape we saw these little computers over the past year, will join the Tablet PC in a niche, far away from the eyes of the mass market. The UMPC will disappear from our radar as quickly as it surfaced.

 

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Key slides from Intel's Spring Analyst Forum 2007 ...

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Ok, let’s not be so dramatic. It really depends on your view if the UMPC is actually dead or alive. However, the idea of the Ultra Mobile PC as it was pitched to us in 2006, as an ultra cool and always connected companion that is with us anytime and anywhere, is gone for good. Expect the current UMPC generation to leave the general retail market very soon.  

During a recent conversation with Intel, which has been one of the first companies to show UMPC concepts and unveil some prototype devices a little over a year a ago, we learned that the initial concept of the UMPC has failed. While the form factor of the UMPC won’t go away, these devices have been less appealing to the mass market than expected and have been redirected to aim at the business market, for example field technicians who use bulky Tablet PCs today. If Intel has its way, then what once was the mass market UMPC will morph into much smaller and less powerful “mobile Internet devices,” short “MID”.

So, if you have been dreaming about that cool little tablet you can bring on vacation instead of dragging that notebook bag along, continue to dream. While MIDs will be more affordable, come in a smaller package and offer more connectivity options than today’s UMPCs, they will be far less capable in terms of processing power and storage capabilities.   

If you take a minute to think about Intel’s idea - and Intel thinks that MIDs have a huge market opportunity with twice or three times the volume of the “new” UMPC - then you will notice that Intel is essentially trying to create a new product category, positioned between ultra mobile PCs (such as the UMPC and devices such as the OQO) and increasingly powerful smartphones, which are becoming computers themselves.

One could doubt if there is really room for such a device. Let’s have a closer look.


What the UMPC was supposed to be and what it became

When Microsoft pitched a mysterious Origami device, which essentially became the concept and general understanding of what a UMPC should be, we learned that the industry had a new device in mind that is created to cash in on the increasingly mobile and connected world: A device that may be purchased in addition to the notebook users already own, but that is small enough to fit in a small backpack or purse.   

There must have been a slight disconnect between Microsoft’s marketing strategists and hardware and product designers. Neither the first nor the second generation of UMPCs came close to the expectations the initial marketing created.

Instead of an always connected ultra cool device, we largely got underpowered, overpriced, bulky and often battery hungry small tablets that lacked a user friendly interface and ended up collecting dust on store shelves. The most recent UMPC generation shown by Samsung finally has WWAN capability, but comes with an awkward keyboard, which is located on the left and the right side of the screen. There is little innovation in this device and while Samsung has a fantastic 32 GB solid state disk in production, the company decided to put a heavy and bulky 1.8” hard drive into its latest UMPC. Add a price tag of more than $1000 and there is enough reason not buy this second-gen UMPC.

There are several ideas of UMPCs on the market today. Besides the tablet-like devices there are the OQOs, which appeared to have slipped into the UMPC marketing wave by accident, the recently released FlipStart or Sony’s ultra mobile UX computer. None of them have become what we could call a success ore at least carry the potential of a “breakthrough” which Intel originally had predicted for 2007.

 

 

Read on the next page: The problem of the UMPC and its replacement: Does it make sense?