New York (NY) – Intel is betting large parts of its business for the next two years on its upcoming 45 nm process technology. At an analyst meeting today in New York, the company updated its vision on how to “return to innovation” and showed confidence that its 45 nm technology is “18 to 24 months ahead of the competition.”

 

---

Key slides from Intel's Spring Analyst Forum 2007 ...

---

 

Technology presentations in the financial community always have to be taken with a grain of salt. Stock prices today depend heavily on comments, believes and estimates of Wall Street, so it isn’t really a surprise that flowery pictures are painted at these events.

In the case of Intel, the company has been waiting for some time now for more favorable comments: While the financial performance of the company is picking up and the product lineup appears to be the strongest in more than a decade, the stock isn’t moving much these days and currently is in the same territory as it was in 1997.

Chief executive Paul Otellini took morning tried once again to convince analysts about the value and prospects of the company that exists today and the Intel we will see three or four years down the road. The key message was that the company isn’t willing to give up the technological lead it has gained over AMD within the past year, but accelerate its efforts to improve its market positioning.

To do so, the company will have an increased focus on cost when designing its products on the one side, which is also reflected by Otellini’s statement that Intel will be reducing the number of employees over the course of this year. The company already shed about 10,000 workers, down to 92,000 from about 103,000, in the past six months and more reductions apparently are on their way.

 

 

 

 

On the other, there is the firm’s 45 nm technology which Intel hopes will enable the firm to create new market opportunities that will secure growth for the firm over the next years. Otellini said that Intel is putting a structure in place that will bring 45 nm products faster to market than any other process technology before: Within three quarters of launch, the company will ship more 45 nm CPUs than 65 nm units, which will account for 100% of Intel’s processor shipments by the end of this year.

“In 45 nm, we have at least a 18 to 24 month lead versus anyone else out there,” Otellini said. According to Otellini, not all 45 nm technologies will be the same and he indicated that Intel will do everything it can to keep the lead once the competition catches up. AMD previously said that it is aiming to introduce 45 nm processors in the second or third quarter of 2008.

While not going into detail, Otellini confirmed that the production of 45 nm processors is on track, with five models (three dual-cores for mobile, DP server and desktop as well as two quad-cores for DP server and the desktop) planned for release later this year or early 2008. The executive also showed a 300 mm wafer with a total of 2500 45 nm “Silverthorne” processors, which will represent Intel’s offering for UMPCs and Mobile Internet devices in 2008 and beyond. “Silverthorne is the most cost efficient processor since the 286. But it is about 100 times faster.”

More lies and marketing FUD from intel

May 03, 2007 12:13     

12 to 24 month lead over AMD?? They're insane. They have to stop smoke it green. AMD stated before that 45nm is on schedule (2nd. quarter of 2008) and they are executing their roadmap flawlessly. IBM is even licensing nano parts to AMD for 32nm and 22nm (linky is here: http://www.theinquirer.net/def...icle=39369). Intel's current process will struggle against this, they also won't have immersion lito for upcoming die shrinks but it's funny that they are not even mentioning it.

It's me report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

What are you smoking?

May 03, 2007 13:23     

AMD hasn't even ramped 65nm yet. You honestly believe they will switch to 45nm that quickly? Of course they're licensing parts from IBM, who do think does all the R&D for AMD's process nodes? Intel's process will not struggle because it is maturing faster than any previous node for Intel. Immersion lithography does not enhance performance, it is just an expensive, unproven way of doing something Intel is already mastering with dry litho. I'll bet you a Penryn that there is no hard launch of any AMD 45nm product in CY08.

RN report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

I don't smoke! :- )

May 03, 2007 13:54     

I think you have to stop eating intel's marketing blurb. AMD IS ramping 65nm NOW. Dell and HP will be launching 65nm Turions X2. Whatever intels lead was in process technology,AMD will have it also (ans surpass it). 45nm will only be 6 months late after intel launches Penryn. When it's time to transition to 32nm, both AMD and intel will have the same time frame. Maybe AMD will be 3 months late but the gap is FINALLY fading away.

It's me report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Yea you realy do smoke, some realy, realy bad weed

May 03, 2007 14:26     

AMDis barely in the 65nm, and the few CPU's it brought out (aka: rewrites of Athlon) were exactly the same performance with slighlty less power usage, and just worse OC ability. think about it, intel, already in 65nm with its Core 2 line completely dominated AMD and anything AMD threw, including the dual FX line, (which was beat by a single X6800). For AMD to succesfully come close (and thats a long shot) to intel in terms of production and performance, they need to stop loosing money and start actualy doing things instead of giving us half-assed benchmark numbers that only "they" can confirm.

Joz report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

AMD are launching a completely new 65nm process, an...

May 03, 2007 14:30     

AMD are launching a completely new 65nm process, and even with watching Intel learn lessons on its 65nm fabs, they'll be scrambling to get the yields they want. They'll be putting the R&D and $$ into getting their new 65nm process running smoothly before they want to go and launch an even more complicated 45nm one. It doesn't make business sense to roll out 45 until 65 is good and solid. I'm all the way with RN here. I'll give you 3:1 penryns that there's no 45nm device out of AMD that any of us can buy in '08.

Stephen report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

With all the cost cutting that AMD has been forced ...

May 03, 2007 14:39     

With all the cost cutting that AMD has been forced to do and I suspect will continue to do until second half of 2008 (with Barcelona arch based products ramping across all segments), I dont see how it is even remotely possible for AMD to be ramping up 45nm anytime before early 2009. They are indeed starting to get the goodness out of 65nm only now..a full year after Intel..so I would expect the same lead for Intel for 45nm also..maybe more so cos the 45nm node is not getting any easier. Yes, AMD has IBM but since when was IBM in the philanthropy business?? They have their own products and priorities and you can bet AMD will be paying quite a bit for this outsourced R&D. In fact, that is one of the BIG advantages for Intel..in house process R&D and large scale manufacturing. To expect AMD to catch up and leap frog in process transition especially when they are in financial doldrums is a bit too naive, I would think.

Bala report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

AMD not ramping 65nm yet

May 03, 2007 14:50     

I find the statement that AMD hasn't even ramped 65nm yet a bit strange. The number of 65nm chips from AMD on the web are quite large and you can buy them from online stores like Newegg and Zipzoomfly. Considering that a majority of AMD's processors go to big box companies like HP and Dell right now, I think it's safe to assume there is little issue with the 65nm process. While I cannot contend with your statements in the rest of your comment as I haven't heard of any issues on Intel's immerson lithography technology, nor the R&D by IBM. Right now the best bet for either chip company is just to sit back and watch what they do. AMD has done well in the past, but their current market standpoint does not reflect this. Any way they go it will be an uphill battle for the company AMD/ATI. I'm waiting patiently for the benchmarks from reputable websites about the new technologies before I invest my hard earned money in them, be it Intel or AMD.

Nate report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

No Low Voltage QuadCore for Notebook

May 03, 2007 15:38     

It seems that if 45nm goes good, the voltage would be low enough for high end quad core processors to be put into laptops, even if its low volts.
Michael report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Shipping 65nm vs ramping 65nm

May 03, 2007 15:41     

Just because you can buy 65nm AMD products all over doesn't mean AMD is shipping mostly 65nm product. You can bet that the majority of their shipments are still 90nm products. Most of their wafer starts may be 65nm now, but that doesn't affect what they ship for a minimum of 3 months. I think it took Intel with all its manufacturing prowess roughly a year to shift 50% of their shipments to 65nm parts. I'd bet AMD's 65nm shipments are still below 30%. As for Intel's immersion litho process, they haven't said much because they haven't needed to. They stated that they would not need it until at least the 32nm node. They don't need to say much about 32nm because 45nm is not even out yet. It is a good thing that Intel can still use dry litho for now because immersion is still very expensive and unproven. With dry litho, Intel can ensure a timely ramp of production capacity and viable mass produced product. I don't want to see AMD fall any further behind than they already are just like anyone else. I like the current prices of both manufacturers products because of the competition as well as the accelerated innovation lately. I'm looking forward to being able build a quad core machine at a very affordable price later this year!

RN report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

LMAO

May 03, 2007 16:01     

I dont know if anyone ever noticed but IBM owns all.The Cell processor destroys all. It eats Intels best. IBM is GOD! And God is with AMD.THe new opty has Local store Just like the Cell. Hum I wonder where they got that idea. The fastest Computer in the world says IBM on it not intel,and infact its a load of opterons. WAKE UP PEOPLE
IBM RULES report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

50% 65nm

May 03, 2007 17:20     

Actually AMD has already passed the 50% mark for 65nm parts they ship. IBM stated they will have their 20nm end of 2008 and that they will share process with AMD and Toshiba.
Sedi report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

FUD from Intel and AMD

May 04, 2007 06:25     

"We'll see!" - the words of a blind.
LoCkFaSt report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

marketing...

May 04, 2007 09:21     

You gotta admire the creativity of Intel's marketing division! 24 months ahead, lol. It seems to me Intel is trying to impress at all costs, maybe K10 represents a threat after all.
fastpunk report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Yeld=$$$$

May 04, 2007 09:41     

if you want to buy into the cell processor technology then you might be loosing alot of money. the yeld for such processors is like 40%. thats means that 40 out of every 100 cell processors made have to be thrown away because they are usless. what AMD and intel do is if a part of the processor is bad they turn off that part of it and sell it as a cheeper model.
Cost report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

lol i aggree

May 04, 2007 12:16     

no it is about the same right now i do aggree 45nm and 22nm are nice but with that it drives down the products of yester year. AMD has invested in more of the next next year tech intel has dumped it money into 45 so lets see what happens next.
Robert Hollar report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

By the time AMD stops talking and finally start shi...

May 05, 2007 01:29     

By the time AMD stops talking and finally start shipping their 1st Barcelona CPU, it will be yesterdays' technology! Intel's up coming CPU's will smoke Barcelona and then some! AMD will stay in it's little box for a long time to come!
Baha report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Yield

May 05, 2007 03:34     

40% Yield means that 60 of 100 must be thrown away, so only 40 are useable.
Alex report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Noobs

May 05, 2007 10:41     

The guy who say intel smoke green, his complete a fanboy of amd. The articles doesn't say will lead overall but only for 45nm product, intel will start producing 45 nm this year, when is amd is going to ? in 2 year about. Yes IBM has the fastest processor but its not for computing yet so don't say computer (desktop) Yes they do have the fastest Super-Computer but honestly anyone could have it, more money you want to waste you will have the fastest super-computer.

srgess report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

They are ahead so far

May 05, 2007 19:40     

core debuted in dec 05 on mobile as a 32bit proc. While they may not be a full 2 yrs or even close at the 45nm node the design at 45nm will get close to 2 yrs ahead. Its a guess that they think AMD will not be able to produce 45nm when they claim they will. And its pretty close to bieng on the money.
vernon l nielsen report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

go ahead

May 05, 2007 20:10     

AMD is a piece of shit!
Go ahead Intel ! report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

RE: go ahead

May 07, 2007 12:25     

Lucky for you that piece of shit exists cause otherwise you'd still be buying Netburst heaters in stead of Core 2.
fastpunk report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

admins, you're slacking. ...

May 07, 2007 12:47     

admins, you're slacking.
matt S report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Intel's so good

May 07, 2007 22:51     

They plan to cut 10,000 workers. Way to go for leading the pack
TomWaddle report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

just wondering...

May 09, 2007 07:30     

does anybody here really pay attention to actual performance? Everyone keeps saying that Intel has this huge advantage over AMD right now... but I just don't see it. The way the architecture is set up Intel can make smaller computations faster where as AMD will handle the big stuff much better... so if you want to go ahead and spend a bunch of money on a high end processor from Intel to run tiny apps then go right ahead. I'll stick with AMD to handle the hard jobs like 3ds max and what not... Sorry fanboi's of Intel, I just don't see spending more money on a slow product from a company with a bad ethics when I can save a few bucks and get great performance... Not to mention not being barraged with 10 new products a month with minimal increases in performance between them. If you recall what happened when ddr2 hit the market, Intel jumped on it and released high latency that toped out at 533. And if any of you read the performance specs, it was not practical in any way to switch your platform due to the lack of a reasonable gain. AMD played it smart and waited a bit until they could actually squeeze out realistic performance increases... People really should study and think before they automatically accept whats fed to them...

nachowarrior report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

AMD 45nm lies

May 09, 2007 16:03     

Otellini's comments are dead on - AMD's "45nm" is a 65nm process with smaller features. It will have virtually no performance improvements (other than power) over their 65nm process when they "release" it. It will take them until late 2009/2010 (based on their own comments) to implement high K/metal gate which is ultimately needed to scale the gate oxide and get the transistor speed improvements. While I applaud AMD for pulling in their schedule to print 45nm features, and this will help them compete economically (more die/wafer), don't confuse printing 45nm features with 45nm process performance - you'll notice the glaring OMISSION of any performance claims when AMD talks about their (I mean IBM's) 45nm process.

AverageJoe report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

Gotta love the fanboys!

May 09, 2007 16:16     

"Dell and HP will be launching 65nm Turions X2" Now if Intel could only catch up and start launching their own 65nm mobile products... Wait you're telling me they did this in Jan 06? Nah... that can't be right, could it? "AMD IS ramping 65nm NOW." Intel is ramping (equipment) 45nm fabs now, they will have crossover on 45nm at about the time AMD STARTS to dribble out a few 45nm products. There's a difference between having essentially a pilot line at launch (AMD on 65nm) vs having several factories in ramp.

AverageJoe report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

re: The guy who say intel smoke green...

May 09, 2007 18:05     

The 300 mm wafers with 45 nm structures are expected to ramp in production at the end of 2007. First 45 nm processors are expected to be commercially available by mid of 2007.
xtian report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0

How about some simple facts?!?

May 12, 2007 02:03     

I bought Core 2 Duo E6300 on September 1st, 2006 here in Serbia. And just about now you can buy 65nm parts from AMD but still in low volume. That's eight, soon to be nine solid months AMD is behind on 65nm process. Intel has final 45nm chips right about now and next month they will hit review sites. I expect them to ship in volume by the end of Q3. It really doesn't matter how late is AMD. The point is that IT IS TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE.

Igor report abuse vote down vote up Votes: +0