Chicago (IL) – The iPhone is all about one big Apple smile: Until now, positive news have outweighed occasional negative headlines by far. But the hype surrounding the smartphone had a hiccup last weekend, as the launch in 21 new markets was apparently slow. A generally fragmented market, limited availability slowing economies, a lack of wide-scale 3G infrastructure and pricey service plans that an average consumer can't afford may be a first indication that there are problems Apple will have to solve, if the company wants to meet its recently adjusted shipment goals. The good news is that Apple is said to have expected slow launches and the company should have no problems selling 10 million units by the end of the year. However, there are analysts who now believe that the 45 million unit target for 2009 may be overly optimistic.
The second wave of the iPhone 3G rollout brought the device to Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Czech Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Estonia, Guatemala, Honduras, Hungary, India, Latvia, Lithuania, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Singapore, Slovakia and Uruguay, bringing the bottom line to 42 countries in which the device is now available. It was expected that most of these countries will not hit the rate of success the phone has seen in the first-wave countries, but analysts have noted that Apple will need to successfully expand into 70 countries by the end of the year to reach set goals and secure the device’s mid-term future and growth path.
Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster estimated that the addition of 21 new markets now increases the addressable iPhone market to 660 million subscribers, up from 370.5 million when the iPhone 3G rolled into its most promising markets on July 11. However, Apple can currently sell the iPhone only to a small portion of addressable customer base, due to its lofty price tag: Munster came up with 660 million by adding up number of subscribers that each iPhone carrier has in all markets where the handset is sold. The top five countries that contributed to the 660 million number are India (105.2 million), Colombia (34 million), Poland (26.9 million), Argentina (25.5 million) and Peru (15.1 million).
There are no launch weekend sales figures, but there are clues that point to a slow start. On one side we noticed that Net Applications web usage data shows a sharp rise of iPhone's share of the browsing market since Friday: The iPhone hit a browser market share of 0.48% on Saturday, up from 0.29% on Thursday. On the other side, there were no people standing in line for the device and the general excitement was subdued. Some blame this scenario on fragmented markets with vast cultural differences, weak economies, low consumer buying power, and pricey service plans (especially 3G data): In fact, in many of the new iPhone countries, the device is well beyond the reach of most middle-class workers.
Read on the next page: Phony lines in Poland, skyhigh prices in India