El Segundo (CA) – Within 18 months of launch, Nintendo will have caught up to Microsoft and the Xbox will lose its advantage to have been in the market one year longer than the competition: iSuppli believes that the Wii will surpass the Xbox 360 this year, while the PS3 is expected to capture the lead in 2011.

Microsoft has been touting the huge installed base of the Xbox 360 ever since the Wii and the PS3 were introduced. It has been no secret that this advantage has been melting away and especially Nintendo was able to open new markets and quickly gain share. At the end of 2007, the Wii nearly matched the installed base of Xbox 360 consoles on a global basis, according to iSuppli: Microsoft is estimated to have shipped 18.2 million Xbox 360 consoles since November 2005, while Nintendo shipped 18.0 million Wiis since November 2006. The Playstation 3 (PS3) is trailing the two with about 10.3 million units.

iSuppli believes that both the Wii and PS3 will see strong sales this year, increasing shipment numbers to 30.2 million for the Wii and 20.3 million for the PS3. According to the market research firm, the Xbox 360 will not be able to keep the pace and end up at 25.3 million by the end of this year. Down the road, iSuppli expects the PS3 to post the strongest growth rates, eventually capturing the market lead in 2011 with an installed base of 38.4 million units, compared to 37.7 million for the Wii and 32.3 million for the Xbox 360.

It is interesting to note that iSuppli actually believes that beginning in 2011, Nintendo and Microsoft will see installed base decreasing. The Wii is listed at 37.7 million in 2001, down from 39.5 million in 2010. The Xbox 360 is estimated to decrease from 33.1 to 32.3 million in the same time frame.