Analyst says iPad will be dethroned in 2014

Posted by Mark Raby

Analyst group Gartner says the iPad will be the #1 tablet through 2014 but isn't clear what platform will take its place.

Company VP Carolina Milanesi noted that by the end of 2011, the iPad is expected to have a tablet marke share of around 73%. That's a pretty impressive number, but you have to remember that just a year or so ago, that number was 100%.

In the time following the iPad's initial launch, several competitors have tried to break into the tough market, including a whole flood of Android tablet. Unfortunately, though, none of them has managed to make much of a dent.

Even with all those Android tablets, the mobile OS only accounts for about 17% of the market. That leaves just 10% for other platforms like webOS, Windows, and the Blackberry Playbook's QNX.

Milanesi praised the iPad's "superior and unified experience across its hardware, software and services" as the reason why Apple has had such success.

In addition, the fact that Apple jumped in early was critical. But unlike most guinea pigs, it did it right.

But that can only last so long, as Gartner points out. As for which OS could become the new tablet platform of choice, it didn't really outline that, but did say it thinks Windows 8 will be too late to the game to make a splash. That pretty much leaves Android as the only choice, with the analyst group specifically pointing to the rumored Amazon tablet as a potential champion.

Gartner didn't discount the Playbook, though, calling its QNX software "promising."